By Eric Baxter
Staff Writer

Photo courtesy INTOWN Manchester

While New Hampshire struggles with a rollercoaster economic future, Manchester’s own financial forecast looks bright. The city is bucking the state’s demographic trends, attracting new businesses and ventures, and fielding a growing population of young professionals bent on transforming the city into a major player in the New England creative economy.

Much of the success of the city is rising from a firm foundation established in the past. Revitalization efforts are breathing new life into old buildings, and far-looking municipal business strategies have created growth districts and partnerships fostering a blend of tradition and foresight.

One example of this is the city’s main artery, Elm Street. A little more than a decade ago most of the shops and buildings were shells, and the few open businesses struggled to make a living and lure visitors away from South Willow Street and the Mall of New Hampshire. Today, empty storefronts are a rarity and, according to several Realtors, prices for commercial and residential properties have risen faster than anticipated annual averages.

Elm Street’s economic present is strong. But to keep it strong, the city will need to overcome a number of new challenges, among them attracting new businesses – not just retail – and a fresh stock of young people with new ideas.

To this end, BusinessNH Magazine will be holding a summit to bring together the public and some of the better business thinkers in the state. Mixed among them will be demographers, economic theorists, university and college professors and a smattering of politicians.

The event will take place Monday, March 27, at The Radisson Hotel Manchester, in the Center of New Hampshire.

BusinessNH assistant publisher Heidi Copeland said the idea for “New Hampshire: 2015” grew out of a government summit the magazine convened in 2005.

“We liked the information that came from that,” she said. “It was a look at the future of the state with people who were very interested in those issues.”

Among the larger issues now facing New Hampshire and slated for discussion will be the state’s role as one of the grayest in the country.

Statistics indicate the Granite State has one of the highest populations of older Americans in the United States. Working in tandem with this is a net population loss of 16,000 people between the ages of 25 and 44 between 2000 and 2004. That’s a very telling number, according to Peter Francese, director of demographic forecasts for New England Economic Partnership, a nonprofit think tank studying the wide variables affecting regional and specific economies and businesses. Francese is also a member of the New Hampshire: 2015 panel.

“We don’t know if a lot of people are aware of some of these issues,” said Copeland. “Are people aware that affordable housing affects business, that New Hampshire is one of the oldest states in country, and what that means in terms of the work force? Essentially, we want to develop an awareness of these issues, and having New Hampshire’s best business minds look at this is one way of doing it.”

Other issues slated for discussion will be the state’s energy needs and adding more production, which would allow the state to halt the purchase of energy from out-of-state concerns. Copeland added the state is also losing tech jobs to Maine, and jobs in that sector pay more than retail. One possible solution floated at the summit will be the creation of more partnerships between the state’s universities and technology companies like BAE Systems to create a pool of trained workers and attract more tech companies to the Granite State.

However, big business and tech sector growth in only one small slice of a very large pie. New Hampshire, as well as Manchester, is known for an economy supported mainly by small businesses. Copeland said a climate that supported those businesses, as well as looking at ways to foster diversity within that part of the economy, will help the state maintain its financial health.

“I travel a lot and I’m often surprised to meet people with successful niche businesses,” she said.

One man she met from the Monadnock region had created a successful business brokering credit card debt. Business like his could be added to an already growing number of artists and shops and small manufacturing niche companies in the state.

“People have found innovative ways to make money,” said Copeland. Manchester’s role as the largest city in the state will play as a key factor in the overall health of the state. The broad question for Copeland, and one that will be posed to the public and summit members, is whether Manchester’s future lies as a bedroom community, a stop on Interstate 93, or as a destination city for business and entertainment.

“Manchester has grown to be a much more sophisticated city, it has a strong entertainment and art component. We want more people to live here, to create an artistic city, a trendy and dynamic city.

“But we need to take action. This summit is part of that action,” she said.

Manchester’s growing role as a destination community was created through a number of very complex factors, said Francese. The city has even beaten the state’s overall drain of young minds.

Francese said much of the aging, however, is confined to towns and communities outside of the major cities.

“A lot of these towns don’t want any more development. They’re basically shutting the door on development,” he said.

Within recent years, many of the border communities, and towns farther a field, have bought up developable land, established growth moratoriums, set minimum lot sizes to 2, 3, or more acres, and what housing is let in is age restricted to older people. The end result is high housing prices, a small amount of housing stock, and prices that drive away younger people, who also constitute the reason why businesses may want to locate there.

Francese said the end result of these activities for the Manchester area is to slow the growth down. He said growth was now one percent a year, and he expected it would drop to a half percent per year in the next decade.

“Add slowing growth to an aging population, and it has a negative economic impact. The labor force is leaving the state, and not only to find an affordable place to live,” said Francese.

Manchester, partially by luck, and partially by plan, has taken the opposite tack from surrounding communities. The result is a robust economy.

Housing is in short, but not dire, supply. There are still affordable apartments, and some homes.

Therefore a larger labor supply has remained, businesses are attracted, and opportunities arise for people crate and take advantage of economic opportunities. Manchester, said Francese, is also interesting enough to attract and keep younger people.

Of course, keeping that edge will be key to the future.

Francese estimated by 2015 the city would boast 118,000 residents, 9,000 more than today. With an estimated 2.5 people per dwelling unit, the city will need to create about 300 housing units per year, with a large number of those being affordable.

Francese defined affordable as being within the economic sights of an annual household income that ranged from $40,000 to $75,000.

“If the city says we need affordable housing, and it is built, then they will be substantial inheritors of great prosperity,” said Francese.

This workforce will be melded with the state’s tax advantages and become a business destination.

However, failure to field a work force will mean businesses will look elsewhere, even with the tax edge. “Sure, you can open a plant in Manchester, but good luck finding workers. No business wants to hear that,” said Francese.

While much of the business of the state is focused on tech and manufacturing, the “creative economy”

now makes up anywhere from 20 to 30 percent of the state’s and Manchester’s business foundation.

“A creative economy is, in large part, a power in New Hampshire today. I don’t mean just artists, but writers and designers – the people in the knowledge economy – they are a huge, huge part of New Hampshire’s economy. But again, we have to refresh them all the time; the state needs a constant influx of young people. But if they can’t find a place to live, they’re gone.

But if Manchester can keep the young people coming in, I foresee a robust future economy for the city. And if the city is doing well, it should help drive the state,” said Francese.

For information on “New Hampshire: 2015,” call BusinessNH Magazine at 626-6534, or visit businessnhmagazine.com. The event runs from 7:30 to 10:30 a.m., and tickets are $35 each.